2008 election historic, whether Obama wins or loses

By Ron Walters

We may be about to witness what political scientists call a "critical election," in which there is a realignment of American politics, in this case from Republican to Democrat. But, more important than that, this election may signal a realignment, from the conservative politics that has gripped this country for the past 30 years to a more liberal version going forward. For the racially disadvantaged and the economically needy, who need government the most, this election may signal a return to policies that emphasize investment in human development, since the evidence is that lack of such an investment has been the major factor in the fading of the middle class.
If there is a difference between the previous administration and what is coming, it will be measured by how the new leaders see the role of government. From what he has said, I'm sure that Barack Obama wants to emphasize personal responsibility, but I am just as sure that he understands the decisive role of government in making sure opportunities that enable people to exercise their personal responsibility do indeed exist.
McCain, however, has followed an ideology that suggests government does not have much of a role in all this, that people should try to exercise their personal responsibility. And if they don't succeed, tough. While that ideology may have been a weapon initiated by Ronald Reagan to blunt the force of the civil rights movement and return to the unchallenged supremacy of Whites in the racial hierarchy, the record shows that it has also damaged Whites enormously, especially the White middle class. So the issue becomes what kind of change voters really want, and which of the candidates they believe can produce it.
If Barack Obama wins, it will undoubtedly be a historic event — because of his race and because it may create in some the idea that America has moved beyond racial evaluation in determining what things are important. But race has not always been the determining factor; if it had been, Clarence Thomas would not be sitting on the highest court in the land. Those who sponsored Thomas did so not only because he was Black and was succeeding Justice Thurgood Marshall, but more importantly because he believed in the same things and they could trust him to deliver policy based on that belief.
A win by Obama would signal a generational change, a departure from the influence of the "baby boomer" generation, moving into post-modern America, an America more at ease with race and more comfortable with global culture and the electronic and visual technologies that unite it. Will he be post-racial in his leadership of public policy? I don't think so, because of his pledges to carry the legacy of the civil rights movement into the 21st century, his understanding of racial problems, and because presidents must respond to problems in the political culture that they didn't create.
So Obama will have to respond to the ongoing saga of racism which has been invested in the culture for over 400 years. The caveat is that his decisions will also be based on the people around him.
Obama is in a position to be the leader of an era-changing movement, the true characteristics of which are not yet clear, but the seeds of which he has proposed in this campaign: more emphasis on environmentalism, concern with domestic productivity and security, promotion of diversity, and collaborative decision making here and abroad. However, if Barack Obama loses, we will move in a familiar direction, defined by a primary concern with narrow racial privilege and competition and radical nationalism.
The difference between the political parties on issues has favored the Democrats during this election season by an average of as many as 10 to 15 points on what Americans regard as the "most important" issues in various surveys — the war in Iraq, the economy, health care, education, terrorism, etc. The difference between candidates Obama and McCain, however, has rarely been in this range, but rather more like 3 to 7 points, with Obama leading most of the time. Analysts have suggested that, given this relatively small difference, he will need a greater lead going into the November election if he is to win, because the racial vote will more than likely reduce his numbers.
A debate has arisen over the so-called "Bradley factor": White Americans saying in polls that they will support a Black candidate but then denying their support when they cast their votes. Some believe that because the U.S. Senate race of Harold Ford Jr. in 2006 turned out close to poll predictions, the Bradley factor no longer exists. We will see.
Black Americans most assuredly will be disheartened if Barack Obama loses, given the heights he has ascended thus far by winning the Democratic nomination for president. Their expectations of a historic outcome have increased as he recovers the lead that McCain co-opted after the Republican Convention. The removal of the gloss from McCain's VP pick, Sarah Palin, and the "perfect storm" of the economic crisis were both pushing Obama into a lead beyond anything he had yet experienced in his race with McCain. For many, the question has become: "How can he lose?"
Others have formulated various versions of the "October surprise" that has appeared in elections from time to time. Underneath it all, there is the torturous feeling of many African Americans that America is not quite "America to me" yet, that the use of race will triumph and the dream will be spoiled.
It seems to me that this is the great test that America must pass. Will it forgo the opportunity to effect serious and history-making change in both its racial image and its support for a new era of human development — or will it reaffirm a narrow vision of America while moving into the gale-force winds of a 21st century that needs diversity, humanity, global sensitivity, intellectual acumen, and a reasoned nationalism? This is what the 2008 election is about.
Dr. Ron Walters is the Distinguished Leadership Scholar, director of the African American Leadership Center, and professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland College Park.